If you look at the population for the top one hundred U.S. metropolitan areas, you get a population that is roughly two-thirds of the U.S. population (215 million of 320 million, using 2015 estimates).
Of these cities, Trump “carried” 64* of them in the Electoral College; Clinton carried 36.
Remarkably, the population “carried” by each candidate differs by only 385,000 people (about a 0.18% difference).
*Populations for some metropolitan statistical areas cross borders of states that each candidate won (e.g., the New York MSA extends into Pennsylvania; the Philadelphia MSA extends into New Jersey, Delaware and Maryland).
Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania… all states Obama won in 2012, 70 electoral votes among them (aka decisive last night).
Iowa: Clinton lost 171,754 votes compared to Obama’s numbers, a 21% drop overall; Trump gained 68,306 votes compared to Romney. A 250% difference.
Ohio: Clinton lost 510,708 votes (18%); Trump gained 110,547. A 462% difference.
Wisc.: Clinton lost 238,775 votes (15%); Trump gained just 1,501. A 15908% difference.
Mich.: Clinton lost 297,196 votes (12%); Trump gained 163,954. A 181% difference.
Penn.: Clinton lost 238,775 votes (5%); Trump gained 232,507. A 63’% difference.
That’s how you lose an election.
Did Trump win it? Did Clinton lose it? That’s up to you to decide, but returns show a lot of Obama voters stayed home.
Would it be worth buying every Powerball number to “guarantee” a win? As you would likely expect, no, not yet, and maybe not ever. With the jackpot currently at $1.5 billion, you’d need a lot more jackpot to make up for the multitude of variables at play in the game. Continue reading “Why It’ll Never Make Sense to Play Powerball (But We’re All Going to Play Anyway)”